A forum for dialogue has been generated with leading opinion- and decision-makers from government, business and labour organisations. This forum is not about negotiation or agreement. It enables open thinking about critical questions and policy balance and the kinds of decisions needed by different stakeholder groupings to dramatically reduce unemployment and poverty. The members of the forum are able to use these ideas in their own constituencies and in sites of negotiation. What do they discuss? These are the "Evidence-Based Employment Scenarios", which draw together the best available evidence from our research and from our partners, to frame scenarios for employment and incomes in a growth and development strategy. We start by asking what minimum household income targets and what distribution of income would be acceptable. These are then linked to employment/unemployment targets. The link between income distribution and employment is clearly important. The employment goal relates to wanting a certain proportion of the working-age population participating in the economy, supporting their families to a more reasonable extent. We then ask what intermediate development points could be reached by 2014 which would take the nation to this income platform. Sustainable development options are sought so that the country progresses past this intermediate target (of say, reducing unemployment to 15%, but then progressing to 10%, and so on). Using the best available empirical evidence, the scenarios are compared to South Africa's current path. These are then interrogated for policies needed to reach these scenarios and their feasibility from technical, political, social and financial perspectives. Each session draws together a set of scenarios, building on discussions and research conducted over the previous period. Alongside the scenarios, the underlying themes are organised as follows:
The first phase focuses on employment creation. The initial emphasis is on sources of market-based employment creation. Subsequent themes will consider employment in public works, community care, and in the informal economy. This phase runs from mid-2006 to mid-2007. The second phase considers labour market, education and social protections questions. This phase will begin in mid-2007, although preparation is already under way. The third phase will consider political economy questions related to the role of stakeholders and institutional solutions to reducing severe unemployment and poverty. Subject areas
Altman, M (2007) Employment scenarios to 2024 Full text
Macroeconomy and Economy-wide studies
Davies, R, and Van Seventer, DEN (2006) The economy-wide effects of price reducing reforms in infrastructure services in South Africa Full text Ngandu, S (2006) Exchange rate and employment project: overviewFull text- Ngandu, S (2006) Exchange rate movements (policy brief)
Full text Ngandu, S, Gebreselasie, T (2006) When might an exchange rate depreciation be growth inducing or contractionary?Full textVan Seventer, D. E. N. (2002) Appropriate analytical tools for economy-wide analysis of employment-creating policies in South AfricaFull text
Sector studies
Aliber, M, Baipheti, M and Jacobs, P (2007) Agricultural employment scenarios Full textAltman, M and Hemson, D (2007) The role of expanded public works programmes in halving unemployment Full textBaartjes, N, Auchterlonie A, Sorenson, P and Goode, R (2007) Mining employment scenarios for South Africa to 2024Full text Davies, R (2006) Manufacturing employment and import dependenceFull textDavies, R (2006) Manufacturing exports and employment growthFull text Hassen, E-K, and Altman, M, (2007) Employment scenarios for the public service in South Africa Full text Lowitt, S, (2007) Constructing future growth opportunities: the potential of the civil engineering and construction works sector Full-text Lowitt, S (2006) A view of South Africa's tourism sector: preliminary findingsFull-text- Lowitt, S (2006) Foreign tourism's contribution towards growth and job creation in South Africa (policy brief)
Full text Tregenna, F (2006) Issues of growth and employment concerning the manufacturing and service sectors in South AfricaFull textTregenna, F (2006) The contribution of manufacturing and services sectors to growth and employment in South AfricaFull text
Global case studies
Berry, A, (2007) Thoughts on employment typologies Full text Berry, A (2006) Employment and income distribution experiences of minerals exporters and of countries achieving growth accelerationFull textBerry, A (2006) What theory and the international experience suggest about the role of manufacturing in good employment growth for South AfricaFull text
Employment scenarios
Altman, M (2006) Background to employment scenariosFull text Altman, M (2006) Elements of employment scenario building: do sources of job creation matter?Full text Altman, M (2006) Setting targets for unemployment reduction and employment creationFull text
Workshops Reference Group session: August 2007
Reference Group session: November 2006
Working Group session: October 2006
Working Group session: August 2006
___________________________________________________ Background papers to Financial Mail cover story: Altman, M (2007) Employment scenarios to 2024 Full text Altman, M and Hemson, D (2007) The role of expanded public works programmes in halving unemploymentFull textBerry, A, (2007) Thoughts on employment typologiesFull text Davies, R, and Van Seventer, DEN (2006) The economy-wide effects of price reducing reforms in infrastructure services in South AfricaFull text Hassen, E-K, and Altman, M, (2007) Employment scenarios for the public service in South AfricaFull text Lowitt, S, (2007) Constructing future growth opportunities: the potential of the civil engineering and construction works sectorFull text Ngandu, S, Gebreselasie, T (2006) When might an exchange rate depreciation be growth inducing or contractionary?Full textTregenna, F, (2007) Which sectors can be engines of growth and employment in South Africa: An analysis of manufacturing and serviceFull text
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