Macro-economy, economic bias and employment

Focus areas

	Evidence-based employment scenarios		Employment monitoring
	Macro-economy, economic bias & employment		Employment-oriented industry studies
	The informal economy		Government employment creation programmes
	Labour markets and social policy		Migration
	Regional dynamics		Social dialogue
	Employment policy network		Food Security, Agriculture and Rural Development

Generally, mineral exporting countries tend to have lower growth rates, low investment in value-added activities, higher levels of inequality, higher rates of inflation and overvalued exchange rates. South Africa is no exception. Government policy has moved the economy some distance away from the apartheid era, when resource curse elements were entrenched. However, the developmental path charted over the course of the 20th century still runs deep. This causes economic bias that encourages capital intensive investments and disincentives to invest in labour absorbing and higher value activities.   It is also relatively non-inclusive.  

Being a middle income economy, it is essential that South Africa's  formal economy expand dramatically and that structural transformation be much more conducive to  labour absorbing activity.   We need to improve our understanding of how different parts of the economy, whether formal or informal, link to each other. This will assist in devising programmes which stimulate employment.

Currently, this includes the following project areas

• The impact of exchange rate policy on employment, and relevant policy options
• The impact of infrastructure reform and administered pricing on employment

Past projects

• Review of inflation and unemployment

Research outputs

Inflation and unemployment

• Michie, J (2003) The Institutional Underpinnings of the Unemployment-inflation Relationship: A Review Paper
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Exchange rates

• Hodge, D. (2005) The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade and employment: a brief review of the literature.
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• Hodge, D. (2005) Volatility of the real exchange rate of the Rand: 1990-2004.  
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• Ngandu, S. (2005) Exchange rates and employment: the experience of fast-growing economies.
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• Ngandu, S. (2005) Mineral prices and the exchange rate: what does the literature say.
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• Ngandu, S (2006) The impact of exchange rate movements on employment: The economy-wide effect of a Rand appreciation
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• Ngandu, S, Gebreselasie, T (2006) When might an exchange rate depreciation be growth inducing or contractionary?
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• Hawkins, P (2006) Exchange rates, growth and unemployment, prepared by FEASibilitY for the HSRC
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Infrastructure and Network Industries

• Altman, M. (2008) Administered Prices Study on Economic Inputs: Executive Summary
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• Muller, M. (2007) Administered prices study on economic inputs: water sector. (Commissioned by the Trade and Industry Chamber)
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• Truen, S. (2007) Prices, investment and efficiency on the railways: a sectoral review of efficiencies in administered pricing in South Africa. (Commissioned by Trade and Industry Chamber)
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• Goode, R. (2007) Administered prices study on economic inputs: ports sector: final report. (Commissioned by the Trade and Industry Chamber)
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• Davies, R. , Van Seventer, D. E. N. (2006) The economy-wide effects of price reducing reforms in infrastructure services in South Africa
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• Botes FJ (2005) The Impact of Transport Pricing Practices in South Africa on Freight Transport Costs
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