Social progress in the midst of slow growth in Latin America: the democratic dividend or the demographic transition? This paper addresses a puzzle in the recent socio-economic development of Latin America. While economic growth in the region in the past 25 years has fallen behind past performance and behind most of the rest of the world, social indicators have continued to improve and poverty rates have continued to fall. In some countries, progress in social indicators appears even to have accelerated compared to past trends. A possible explanation could be that the increase in social spending and more targeted poverty reduction programmes have made possible the improvement in social indicators despite a sluggish process of economic growth. This paper challenges this explanation and offers an alternative based on the demographic transition in the region. Professor Jaime Ros is Professor in the Department of Economics and Policy Studies and Faculty Fellow of the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame in the US. His main research interests are development economics and growth theory, open economy macroeconomics and the stabilization and adjustment problems in Mexico and other Latin American countries. He draws on a wealth of research and international experience, particularly in Latin America. Global trends in income inequality This paper considers trends in national income inequalities globally. The main conclusion is that there are two opposite forces at work; one ‘centrifugal’ at the two extremes of the distribution – increasing the diversity of income shares appropriated by the top and bottom income groups across countries and one ‘centripetal’ in the middle – increasing the uniformity of the share of income going to deciles 5 to 9. Therefore, virtually all the inter-country diversity of income distribution is the result of the differences in what the very rich and the poor get in each country. Dr Gabriel Palma of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Cambridge is well-known internationally for his influential work on the economic development of Latin America and East Asia and their integration within the World Economy. His work particularly focuses on the study of these economies from the point of view of their economic history, macroeconomics, international trade and international finance. Contact Desiree Fisher Tel: 012 302-2740. Other venues: Cape Town: HSRC, 12th Floor,Plein Park Building (Opposite Revenue Office), Plein Street, Cape Town. Contact Bronzina Nel, Tel (021) 4668000, Fax (021) 461 0299, Cell: 0732247520 Durban: HSRC, First floor board room, 750 Francois Road, Ntuthuko Junction, PODS 5 and 6, Cato Manor, Contact Rina Poonen, Tel (031) 2425415, Fax (031) 242 5401, Cell 084 2406 003 |
