Epidemiological parameters such as the disease prevalence, the force of infection, the transmission rate, and the reproduction number are playing a crucial role in the application and interpretation of mathematical and statistical models for infectious diseases. Using serological data and social contact data the aforementioned parameters can be accurately estimated. Whereas serological data allows estimating the age-dependent prevalence and the force of infection, social contact data contain the essential information about the way people mix and thus in particular about the type of contact which is needed for a susceptible to get infected when contacting an infectious subject. To get estimates for the age-dependent transmission rates, both sources of data have to be combined appropriately into the model, with the restriction to parameterize all model components in such a way that the global model remains identifiable. The approach will be illustrated on Belgian data: serological data from the period November 2001 until March 2003, when 2655 serum samples were tested for Varicella, and social contact data from a diary survey conducted in a period from March until May 2006 in Belgium.
Please RSVP by 20 August to: HSRC Cape Town: 12th Floor, Plein Park Building (Opposite Revenue Office)
Plein Street, Cape Town
Contact Ngxubaza Vuyo, on +27 (0)21 466 8099 HSRC Durban: 1st floor boardroom
750 Francois Road, Ntuthuko Junction, PODS 5 and 6
Cato Manor, Durban
Contact Rina Poonen on +27 (0)31 242 5415
or Johannes Khoele on +27 (0)31 242 5400 HSRC Pretoria: Video Conference Room
1st floor, HSRC Library
HSRC Building, 134 Pretorius Street Pretoria
Contact Arlene Grossberg on +27 (0)12 302 2801
or Baby Twala on +27 (0)12 302 2368 |
