Between TRUST and SCEPTICISM: Public confidence in institutions

The combined results of the SASAS and that of the earlier HSRC national opinion (EPOP) surveys, conducted from 1998–2001, shows a demonstrable improvement in public confidence in institutions, rising from an average of 47% in 1998 across 12 institutions to above 60% in 2004 (Table 1).

Marked decline in trust

But in contrast to the preceding years, the data from late 2005 show a worrisome reversal in trust in virtually all major public institutions, particularly local government and Parliament, but also the other two tiers of government. This downward trend continued into 2006 and 2007.

Over the three-year period between 2004 and 2007, trust in local and national government and in Parliament dropped by approximately 20 percentage points, and by 16 percentage points in relation to political parties (Table 2).

Modest but notable declines in trust (between 5 and 10%) were observed between 2004 and 2006 in relation to the courts of law, provincial government, the defence force and the police.

National and provincial governments, Parliament and the courts received slim majority support in 2006, though by the end of 2007, only national government retained the confidence of more than 50% of the public.

South Africans appear somewhat less likely to place confidence in their local government and the police (34% and 39% respectively in 2007), which are institutions at the forefront of government service. Political parties have consistently received the lowest trust ratings (27% in 2007) of all the political and social institutions examined.

In spite of the declining confidence in government and other institutions of representative democracy over the past few years, it is equally important to bear in mind that in many instances the levels of trust still remain above those reported in the late 1990s. In the case of the IEC, provincial government, national government and the courts of law, levels of public trust in 2007 were more than 10% higher than in 1998. Exceptions include political parties, local government and the police, in which confidence remains marginally below 1998 levels.

In those we trust

Over the decade, the majority of citizens (81% on average) have consistently and resolutely shown that they are most likely to express greatest confidence in religious institutions, such as churches. This is a typical pattern across sub-Saharan Africa.

This is followed by trust in the national broadcaster, SABC, which exceeded 70% between 2003 and 2007. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has also received fairly healthy approval ratings, with majority support from about two-thirds of the adult population since 2001.

Trust by race group

Looking beyond national averages, levels of trust in institutions continue to exhibit important variations by race. There does appear to be broad agreement in the ranking among the different population groups with respect to the institutions they trust the most (religious organisations, media) and the least (political parties). However, there remains a substantial difference in both ranking and actual levels of trust in institutions in-between the two extremes.

For example, in 2006, trust in provincial government, national government and Parliament was more than three times higher for black South Africans compared to white South Africans, and four times as high in relation to political parties (Figure 1).

Support levels for the police and courts are low among both black and white citizens, which may reflect concern over crime and safety. Institutional trust among the coloured and Asian population is reported mainly at intermediate levels between those expressed by the black and white population.

Is there any evidence to suggest that gaps between population groups in institutional trust have begun to close over the last decade? The trends are rather mixed.

In many cases, there does not appear to be anything more than small reductions in the percentage point differences between different population groups, though there are some exceptions. Most notable is the significant convergence in attitudes towards local government. This is attributable to rising mistrust among the black population (falling from 46% in 1998 to 35% in 2007), compared with a small increase in trust among the white population.

Between 2004 and 2007, trust in local government fell by 25 percentage points for black citizens, a figure far exceeding any other population group. The result has been that a gap of 30 percentage points in 1998 between black and white adults had diminished to a mere 7 percentage points in 2007, with only around a third of both groups expressing trust in their local municipality.

Causes of mistrust

What could be driving the rising mistrust in the country’s political institutions? On the basis of other studies, a number of plausible hypotheses emerge:

• political scandal;
• self-enrichment and conspicuous consumption among officials and leaders;
• critical media messages about politicians and the government;
• a public perception that societal problems such as poverty and crime are not being solved;
• perceived poor responsiveness of politicians to citizens’ grievances; and
• ineffectiveness in delivering upon developmental promises.

Other factors to be considered include illiteracy, which constrains access to knowledge and information; and the lack of first hand knowledge of many institutions due to geographic isolation from many public institutions. In coming months we will examine the relative importance of competing explanations, and how these are evolving over time.

Need for alarm?

Claims that such results constitute a ‘crisis of democracy’ would be misplaced. It is too early to determine whether the post-2004 trend represents a transitory downturn or the beginning of a gradual but sustained erosion of confidence, especially since trust in many political institutions remains higher than the late 1990s.

Also, there is an argument in the literature that a certain amount of wariness and scepticism is a healthy sign for a democracy, since it implies the emergence of ‘critical citizens’ that do not place blind faith in public institutions.

But there is still cause for concern, particularly for a fairly young democracy such as South Africa. The survey findings suggest that the professed ‘Age of Hope’ has lost some of its lustre over the last few years as the ‘mood’ of the nation has taken a negative turn in the face of uncertain times.

A continued steady decline in public confidence, especially in the principal institutions of representative democracy, could present a risk in that the healthy scepticism associated with critical citizenship is increasingly replaced with political disaffection and alienation. This in turn could begin to undermine the legitimacy of the state.

Of note is the fall in confidence in Parliament, given that the legislature constitutes the main representative institution that links citizens to the state, while the dwindling trust in local government speaks volumes on perceptions of government performance. And trust matters, because the extent to which citizens deem political institutions and leadership trustworthy may ultimately inform their political participation and voting behaviour, support for government policies or reforms, and interpersonal trust.

These findings clearly point to the need for the continuous monitoring of public confidence in our society’s institutions, especially in a post-Polokwane context.