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 The octogenarian Mugabe has become a liability to the country, while the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai has proved to be a weak, indecisive leader who has blundered his way through political decisions and serious errors of judgement.
Beacon of hope?In contrast to Mugabe and Tsvangirai, Makoni represents hope and pragmatism. He is intelligent, level-headed and realistic. He has outstanding anti-colonial credentials and thus cannot be dismissed as an upstart. When Makoni was in government, he consistently objected to irrational policies in both government and the politburo, and this cost him his position in cabinet. It was not the first time he had been booted out of government for speaking his mind and for his principled opposition to unsound policies. Most importantly, Makoni is a simple, honest man of honour and integrity. He is one of the few senior leaders in Zanu PF who has not been implicated in corruption when almost the entire top leadership of the party is absorbed in self-enrichment projects and are out-competing each other to strip the country of its valuable assets. As many observers have noted, his entry presents Zimbabweans with the best prospect for change, but his success depends on the effectiveness of his campaign in a race that has become dirty, vicious and tight. Regrettably, his campaign so far seems incapable of rising to the occasion. Weak campaign His inexperienced campaign team has underestimated the hurdles to be cleared in this race and clearly did not adequately prepare for the difficulty of running against a Mugabe team determined to retain and even mummify him in office at all costs. All the obstacles that Makoni’s team has encountered, from transport, fuel procurement, printing of campaign material to opening a bank account, could have been anticipated by consulting with seasoned Zimbabwean opposition campaigners and by developing effective counter-strategies. | He is intelligent, levelheaded and realistic. He has outstanding anti-colonial credentials and thus cannot be dismissed as an upstart. |
Another major problem is that ordinary people seem to be unaware of his campaign. He also has no visible team around him, save for academic publisher Ibbo Mandaza and the politically inexperienced retired army major Kudzai Mbudzi, who have both been appearing with him since his entry into the race. The much talked about support of senior members of Zanu PF has remained speculative. Only former cabinet minister and politburo member Dumiso Dabengwa and former Speaker of Parliament Cyril Ndebele have dared to express their support for him publicly. Other potential backers within the ruling party have benefited from the politics of patronage and are afraid to lose their ill-gotten wealth if they back Makoni publicly. They will continue to play the sinjonjo (hide and seek) politics of Zanu PF and will come out of their political closets only when they are reassured of Makoni’s victory. The biggest challenge that Makoni faces is time. He entered the race at a very late stage when many Zimbabweans had given up hope for change and did not bother to register. This is going to cost him votes. And apart from the initial announcement of his candidacy and the two weekend rallies he has had in Bulawayo and Harare, Makoni has not made much effort to reach out to the voters. Delusions of grandeur? Makoni’s lack of visibility may be due to a deliberate snub by the largely state-controlled media. All the same, he has not made extensive enough use of alternative media channels, such as cell phones, independent weekly newspapers, the ‘bush telegraph’ and radio stations operating from outside the country. Electoral campaigns require media exposure to be effective, especially in far-flung parts of the country. In Zimbabwe’s hostile political and media environment, a sympathetic independent media would be a crucial ally for any opposition party. Yet Makoni does not seem to appreciate this. On the few occasions that he has been interviewed by the media, he has appeared aloof, arrogant and abrupt – a characteristic which is soon going to alienate him from the fourth estate. The unveiling of his manifesto was chaotic and unprofessional. He ducked direct questions and in cases where he had been pressured to provide an answer, his responses were tactless. A good example is a BBC interview he had with John Simpson on 28 February. Initially he responded well to Simpson’s question about ‘international prosecution’ for Mugabe, but was literally cornered into making a careless statement about this sensitive issue. During his recent interview with South Africa’s Radio 702, Makoni was aggressive and abrasive towards the host and telephone callers. He did not justify his candidacy and arrogantly dismissed callers with pronouncements like ‘if you had read my statement’ or ‘if you know anything about me then you wouldn’t ask me that question’. The 702 interview also betrayed the lack of a coordinated media strategy. Makoni repeatedly inquired if the interview was live and after he was told that it was, he protested about not being given advance notice. It was only when the talk-show host reminded him that he had been notified about the interview a week before that he reluctantly agreed to proceed. There is an element of overconfidence on Makoni’s part, which might be his undoing. The reluctance to explain his political credentials points to an egoistical leader who sees himself as a messianic figure. He seems to think it is self-evident that he is the answer to the Zimbabwean stalemate. He may well be that answer, but he needs to do some serious, hard work. Without this, Makoni might be the best president Zimbabwe never had. Dr Mcebisi Ndletyana and Dr James Muzondidya are both senior research specialists in the Democracy and Governance research programme.
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