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A study conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), based partly on the findings of a survey and partly on an analysis of Department of Education enrolment figures, has found that only 14% of learners who wrote the Senior Certificate Examination (Grade 12) in 2001 enrolled in higher education institutions in 2002. Similar numbers of those learners entering higher education (i.e. universities and technikons) registered for programmes in the Humanities (31%), Business and Commerce (32%), and Science, Engineering and Technology (37%). The HSRC study is a sequel to Phase 1 of the Student Choice Behaviour project conducted in 2001. That study found that 60% of learners aspired to enter HE the year after Grade 12, and that 74% aspired to do so within three years of the survey date. The Phase 2 study, Settling for Less: Student Aspirations and Higher Education Realities, investigated the range of possible learner destinations after Grade 12. The survey showed that 13% of learners were repeating Grade 12 in a school the next year; 47% were in further learning (further education and training, and higher education); 14% were employed; and 26% were unemployed (22% looking for a job, 4% not economically active). The percentage of those in further learning in relation to those in the other categories is likely to be higher than it actually is as their greater postal accessibility and consequent receipt of a postal questionnaire having inflated this figure. Of all black African learners enrolled in institutions of learning one year after the Phase 1 survey, one in five was repeating Grade 12. The Phase 1 study stirred up controversy in 2001 when it revealed that nearly two-thirds of Grade 12 learners preferred technikon to university study. The enrolment profile a year later painted a different picture, however, as 56% of students enrolled in universities, and 44% in technikons. An analysis of the first-year intake by gender and race indicates that higher percentages of female students than male students enrolled in higher education institutions, despite the fact that male students performed better than their female counterparts in Grade 12 (64% of males passed in 2001, versus 60% of females). In relation to their representation in the general population, black African and coloured students were under-represented in the first-year intake (53% versus 79% for black Africans, 8% versus 9% for coloureds), while Indian / Asian and white students were over-represented (9% versus 2% for Indians / Asians, 30% versus 10% for whites). “Racial equity is therefore far from having been achieved in the first-year intake of learners who were in Grade 12 the previous year,” according to project leader Michael Cosser. The study shows that the reputation of the institution and of the school / faculty / department in which the student is registered, as well as the perceived higher academic standards of the institution, are the most influential factors affecting student enrolments in specific institutions. Further analysis of the breakdown of study choices reveals that 17% of students in 2002 enrolled in the Natural and Mathematical Sciences, 14% in Engineering and Other Applied Sciences, 5% in the Health Sciences, 32% in Business and Commerce, 3% in Education, 19% in the Social Sciences and Applied Humanities, and 9% in the Humanities. A comparison of these enrolment figures with the study preferences of respondents to the 2001 survey reveals that the same percentage of students (32%) enrolled in the field of Business and Commerce in 2002 as had wanted in 2001 to do so far higher percentages of learners wanted to enroll in Engineering (23%) and the Health Sciences (14.6%) than actually did so a higher percentage of learners enrolled in the Natural and Mathematical Sciences (16.9%) than the number who indicated that they planned to do so in the Phase 1study (10.6%) while nearly half (48.2%) of learners in Grade 12 wanted to study in Science, Engineering and Technology, only 36.6% did so; and a fifth (19.5%) of Grade 12 learners planned to study in the Humanities, nearly a third (31.4%) actually did so. These shifts suggest that the Natural and Mathematical Sciences are an alternative entry point into the Health Sciences and, to a lesser extent, into Engineering and Other Applied Sciences, and that a sizeable proportion of learners who want to study in Science, Engineering and Technology, end up studying in the Humanities. More males (nearly a third) enrolled in Business and Commerce than in any other field. Engineering was the second most popular choice. For females, the most popular choice was also Business and Commerce, while the second most popular choice was Social Sciences and Applied Humanities. A comparison of 2001 preferences and 2002 enrolments reveals that the gender differentials are much larger for female than for male learners – suggesting either that females have less “choice” than males in their study directions, or that they are less sure than males of their HE preferences while they are still at school. Racial choices, the study shows, overturn popular perceptions about enrolment patterns. More black Africans enrolled in Business and Commerce than in any other field, followed by the Social Sciences. For whites, however, the Social Sciences was the most heavily subscribed field. Fewer black Africans, coloureds, and Indians / Asians enrolled in Education than in any other field; but the Health Sciences was the least subscribed field for whites. However, many more whites (1 207) enrolled in Education programmes than did black Africans (552), coloureds (108) or Indians / Asians (80). “Only a year after the publication of the National Plan for Higher Education (NPHE), then there has already been a shift in first-year enrolments, African students no longer being ‘clustered’ in the Humanities – as the NPHE claims – but in Business and Commerce”, maintains Cosser. Not unexpectedly, black Africans and coloureds are under-represented in the student enrolment cohort in all seven programme areas in relation to their representation in the population of 15-24-year-olds in the country, whereas Indians / Asians and whites are over-represented in all seven areas. “While higher education institutions have made great strides in redressing racial imbalances in student enrolments, these figures suggest that there is still a lot more work for them to do in ensuring that HE enrolment trends reflect the broader demographics of the country,” says Cosser. A comparison of 2001 survey learner preferences and 2002 enrolments reveals that higher percentages of students of all population groups enrolled in the Humanities than had planned to do so – especially Indian / Asian and white learners lower percentages of students of all population groups except black Africans enrolled in Business and Commerce than had planned to so; and lower percentages of students of all population groups enrolled in Scinece, Engineering and Technology programmes than had planned to – except that for white learners the differential is much smaller than for the other groups. The factors that influence learners’ choices of fields of study most strongly, both studies show, are interest in the field of study, opportunities of finding a job in South Africa with a qualification in the field, and the ability to use a qualification in the field to contribute towards the development of the country. The Phase 2 survey also gauged whether students had performed better or worse than expected in their first year of HE study. Three-quarters of students in HE (78%) said they had performed academically better than expected in 2002. The five factors influencing this superior performance most strongly were self-confidence, having a positive attitude towards life, interest in the field of study, having a space to study in peace and quiet, and wanting to prove oneself to one’s detractors. A higher percentage of female than of male students (81% versus 74%) said they had performed better than expected. On the racial front, a lower percentage of coloured students (68%) than students of the other population groups (78% for black Africans, 77% for Indians / Asians, and 78% for whites) indicated that they had performed better than expected. This resonates with the Phase 1 survey finding that a lower percentage of coloured Grade 12 learners (57%) than learners of other population groups (74% for Africans, 80% for Indians, and 72% for whites) aspired to enter HE.
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