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Media Release The integrated report on the Educator Supply and Demand in South African Public Schools, commissioned by the Education Labour Relations Council (ELRC) in November 2003, set out to explore the phenomenon of educator attrition and to understand various reasons why educators may be leaving the profession. In addition, the study sought to understand the system’s demand for educators and the number of educators needed to meet this demand. The first results were published in a series of seven reports and were presented to the media and other stakeholders on 31 March 2005. The aim of this final report, presented today, is to integrate all of the above reports and to give a more comprehensive picture of the determinants of supply of and demand for educators in public schools. The main author of the report is Professor Karl Peltzer, a research director at the HSRC, and the principal investigator is Dr Olive Shisana, CEO of the HSRC. FINDINGS (1) Educator growth demand
Learner enrolment trends
Comparing learner population and learner enrolment, the potential learner population (6-18 year-olds) has been increasing from 1999 to 2003, but learner enrolment has been decreasing from 1997 to 2003. The decline in learner enrolment may be attributed to different entry points at Grade 1, increased learner throughput, fertility decline, increase in the proportion of vulnerable children (orphans, girls) with restricted access to school and enhanced provincial Education Management Information Systems (EMIS) systems. Using population-based data, the school-age population aged 6-13 grew by 1.4% per annum between 1999 and 2001 and by 1.2% per annum between 2001 and 2003. During the period 1999-2001 the school population, aged 14-18, grew by 0.6% per year and by 1.2% during the period 2001-2003, taking estimates of the impact of AIDS into consideration. Learner to educator ratio
In 2003, the learner to educator ratio, based on SNAP surveys, was 35.1:1 for both primary and secondary schools. This ratio has remained stable over the past five years. The maximum target from the Department of Education is 40:1 for primary and 35:1 for secondary schools. (2) Educator replacement demand
Trends in the employment of educators
According to PERSAL, the government's payroll system, the total number of public educators declined from 386 735 in 1997/98 to 366 320 in the 2002/03 financial year. This represents a net change of educators of -5.3% during that five-year period. Attrition of educators
Government PERSAL data for state-paid educators indicate that the national gross attrition rate in 1997/98 was 9.3%, dropping to 6.4% the following year and declining to 5.5% in 2000/01 before beginning to rise steadily again to 5.9% in 2002/03. Major reasons for attrition include resignations, death and age retirement. (3) Supply of educators
There has been a decline in students taking the Initial Professional Education of Teachers (IPET) qualifications, namely the undergraduate Bachelor of Education (BEd) and the Postgraduate Certificate in Education (PGCE). Self-reported data from the Deans’ Forum in 2004 indicated that education institutions are producing at best approximately 9 000 graduates of whom at least about 3 000 may already be practising educators. The decline in enrolment is significant among black Africans. Improved career opportunities for black applicants have not only reduced the number of applicants who enter the education sector, but have also had an impact on the supply of educators because even the small pool of education graduates may not necessarily end up teaching. HIV status of student educators and FET lecturers
Third-year and fourth-year education students were tested for HIV in this study and 8.2% were found to be HIV-positive. The majority of the FET lecturers have so far escaped the HIV epidemic; only 3.9% are HIV-positive. Unqualified and under-qualified educators
In 2000, 76 839 (22%) educators were considered unqualified or under-qualified, which is a decrease from 122 459 (36%) in 1994. In 2004, based on the School Educator Survey, the percentage of unqualified or under-qualified educators further declined to 8.3%. The pool of educators
Sources other than newly qualified educators could enter the teaching profession, including educators on leave and unemployed or temporary educators. Trends from labour force surveys show that the number of those unemployed who are qualified in education has declined significantly. In other words, the educator pool is decreasing and therefore the employment of educators depends more on the availability of newly qualified educators. A Department of Education (DoE) survey showed a current figure of 11 000 unemployed educators, of which a significant number were trained before the introduction of the Revised National Curriculum Statement (RNCS). For DoE to employ them, these educators will have to attend training courses to acquaint them with the new curriculum. Looking at international migration, there are more educators leaving the country than coming into South Africa since 1999. Overall, the net loss of educators increased to almost 2 000 in 2003. (4) Comparing supply with demand
New demand
If the learner to educator ratio remains constant, the estimated new or growth demand for the period 2004-2008 for educators will remain similar over time. To maintain the current standard of learner to educator ratio of 40 in primary and 35 in secondary education, a net-enrolment ratio of 97% would require about 319 704 to 336 159 educators in 2008. Replacement demand
Replacement demand is likely to be significant in the next four years (up to 2008), reflecting resignation, death and ageing of the educator workforce. If the past and projected trends continued, and the projected demand for educators in 2008 is taken into consideration, there would be a short fall of around 15 090 educators by 2008 if learner to educator ratios are 40:1 for primary and 35:1 for secondary schools. If the learner to educator ratio was 35 for both primary and secondary school educators, the projected demand for educators would imply a shortfall of around 32 000 to 34 000 educators by 2008. Supply/demand imbalances
The preceding analysis suggests that it may not be possible to meet recruitment needs for new educators from new graduates in the period ahead. This imbalance could probably also not be filled by the steadily declining ‘pool’ of educators from the community who have teaching qualifications, but who are currently not working as educators or seeking work as educators. Limited supply appears likely from migration, especially given the strong demand for educators by other English-speaking countries. RECOMMENDATIONS Major recommendations emanating from the study are that the Department of Education, with the support of the unions and the Council of Higher Education Institutions, should consider to: (1) Produce more educators than currently trained and the significantly improved employment opportunities for education graduates should be made clear to prospective student educators. (2) Intensify its programme of attracting more students to education and retaining educators in the teaching profession including an improved career path structure, and adequate resources allocated to improve conditions of service of educators and loans for student educators. (3) Establish a separate tracking system for new education graduates and make available in a list of vacancies in the different specialisations in schools in different provinces. (4) More emphasis should be placed on the induction of new educators into the profession. Entry into teaching should be re-examined from the educator recruitment and preparation stage. Further, more control over educators that are emigrating to Commonwealth and other countries to take up teaching positions should be exercised. Perhaps a community service for newly qualifying educators could be introduced as it is practiced with other scarce professions in South Africa. (5) The DoE needs to ensure that effective support structures are established for educators in order for them to focus on teaching. (6) Improve class room environment (improve training on OBE, reduce administrative tasks, ensure school safety) and job satisfaction (more recognition of the teaching profession, professional development and career advancement) (7) Improve health of (student) educators by developing an HIV prevention programme, establish and manage a programme specifically to provide a comprehensive prevention and treatment programme for all illnesses (including HIV/AIDS and TB). (8) A comprehensive programme consisting of prevention, treatment of opportunistic infections and antiretroviral therapy should be provided to (student) educators. (9) Teaching in rural areas should be encouraged, e.g. by offering loans for rural students and extended and supportive field experience in rural schools. (10) A dynamic data tracking system should be created and a periodical review conducted on the demand and supply of educators.
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